WASHINGTON — Plant-based meat substitutes could account for 6% of total meat consumption by 2030 if they continue to grow at their current rate, according to a new report from the Good Food Institute (GFI). Such a scenario would require manufacturers to produce around 25 million tons of products per year.

The report, titled “Plant Meat: Anticipating the Production Demands of 2030,” outlines the investments needed to expand ingredient supply chains and manufacturing capacity as consumer demand does not exceed industry capabilities. industry over the next decade.

vegetable protein

To determine future ingredient needs, GFI’s analysis assumed that the plant-based meat industry in 2030 will roughly mirror the ingredient composition of the major products in today’s market, where 62% of meat analogues are at wheat and soy based.

Since these well-established commoditized crops are already being produced on a large scale, the report estimates that only 2% of global wheat and soybean production will be needed for plant-based meat in the future. However, the industry could require up to three times the expected global supply of soy protein concentrate, highlighting the need for increased intermediate processing capacity.

Pea protein may cause more problems. Assuming current yields, the plant-based meat industry could require 10 times the projected global supply of fortified forms of pea protein and 34% of global pea production by 2030, according to the report.

Due to its relatively low protein content of 28%, the manufacture of pea protein concentrate and isolate leads to significant volumes of by-products, namely starch.

“The lack of viable commercial uses for pea protein by-products like starch has made its production susceptible to raw material price volatility,” said Dylan Dowdy, PhD, Head of Scientific Analysis and technology at GFI. “The biggest bottleneck we see here is processing capacity, but the bottom line is that without greater investment to improve the commercial viability of pea protein side streams, the price of the ingredient may become restrictive.”

There is room for breeding approaches to increase the protein content of peas as well as processing innovations to improve its extraction efficiency, which would result in a higher yield of pea protein isolate per acre, he added.

There is also room for breeding programs to increase the protein content of other crops. Wheat, soy, and potato have historically been bred and bred for starch production, resulting in commercial strains with sacrificed protein content, ease of isolation, solubility, and flavor .

“There are multiple benefits to be gained if we can optimize every step of the supply chain with this end-use plant-based meat application in mind,” Dowdy said.

The report urged ingredient manufacturers and suppliers to explore alternative plant proteins, such as certain legumes, oilseeds, vegetables, nuts and grains, and to look for opportunities to use secondary products such as spent grain from the brewing of vegetable meats. It also encouraged partnerships in ingredient development, highlighting Cargill’s $75 million investment in Puris, which allowed the company to refine its proprietary pea protein for meat-like applications.

coconut oil

Coconut oil’s high saturated fat content and resulting functional properties have made it an essential component of many herbal products. By 2030, the plant-based meat industry could require at least 16% of the world’s supply, the majority of which is produced in Indonesia and the Philippines. The commodity’s export reliance could lead to supply constraints and price volatility, according to the report.

“If coconut oil retains its dominance in plant-based meat formulations and alternative means of production are not developed, additional investment in processing capacity and coconut cultivation would likely be required. to keep pace with increased demand,” Dowdy said.

The industry’s reliance on coconut oil, combined with its volatile supply chains, suggests that the industry should seek to diversify into alternative fats that offer similar, if not superior organoleptic qualities, a- he added.

“New manufacturing methods to produce similar fats, such as using microbial strains or modifying more abundant vegetable fats, should also be explored,” Dowdy said.

Private Capital

GFI has estimated that the industry will need to operate at least 800 extrusion facilities – each producing no less than 30,000 tonnes of extruded protein products per year – to meet the production target of 25 million tonnes by 2030.

“There is a huge need for short-term investment in capacity expansion, and that takes time,” said Zak Weston, GFI’s foodservice and supply chain manager. “If we have a need today, it means we are several years behind in meeting that need, because it takes years to find the financing and build factories.”

The need for increased capacity and infrastructure, including to manufacture finished plant-based products, will require substantial capital from financiers beyond start-up venture capitalists, he said. he adds.

“It’s extremely important that we mobilize private capital, especially capital that is well suited for infrastructure and sustainable assets,” Weston said. “That primarily means debt financing, more than equity financing. We need to engage financiers like banks, as well as some players like private equity funds and a whole new class of institutional investors, rather than just relying on seed venture capital, which is usually too small and does not have the right risk return delay mandates to play in the infrastructure space.